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Who will win 2017 Nobel prize in literature?

Two novelists had the lowest odds, while author of novel made into a TV series also predicted to win

Stockholm: After two consecutive years of unconventional choices for the Nobel Literature Prize, observers are wondering if the Swedish Academy’s adventurous streak will continue.

Haruki Murakami of Japan, whose works fuse the realistic and the fantastic, and Kenya’s Ngugi wa Thiong’o, whose political work forced him to leave for the United States, are seen as top contenders for the 9-million-kronor ($1.1 million) prize being awarded on Thursday.

In 2015, a rare Nobel Literature prize for a non-fiction writer went to Svetlana Alexievich of Belarus.

Last year’s award to American Bob Dylan sparked a debate about if popular song lyrics can legitimately be considered literature. Alfred Nobel, the Swedish industrialist and inventor whose will established the prizes, said he wanted the literature award to honor “ideal” work, without defining the term.

But this year, not only are the 18 Academy members expected to go with a more orthodox choice, predictions are that they will also honor someone who enjoys broad consensus and is seen as Nobel-worthy, with the institution keen to avoid the media spectacle surrounding Dylan’s win.

The first singer-songwriter to win the prestigious prize, the rock legend didn’t comment on his Nobel for several weeks and then snubbed the formal prize ceremony in Stockholm.

“The Academy is actually a very discreet society and we shouldn’t expect anything sensational” this year, Clemens Poellinger, literary critic for Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, said.

So who will get the nod?

The Academy is known for its cloak-and-dagger methods to prevent any leaks, resorting to code names for authors and fake book covers when reading in public.

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Pundits therefore try to dissect the Academy’s latest interests to guess the winner, while punters have a field day on betting sites.

On Wednesday, novelists Haruki Murakami of Japan and Ngugi wa Thiong’o of Kenya had the lowest odds on numerous sites. They were followed by Canada’s Margaret Atwood, whose novel “The Handmaid’s Tale” was recently made into a well-received TV series.

Will the prize go to yet another man? Of the 113 laureates honored since the prize was first awarded to France’s Sully Prudhomme in 1901, only 14 are women.

But the Academy insists it doesn’t take gender into consideration, nor nationality, language or genre for that matter. “The gender balance among those who have received the prize is embarrassing” and the Swedish Academy must be aware of it, said Rakel Chukri, the cultural editor of regional daily Sydsvenskan.

If the Academy were to go with a political pick, it could choose Syrian-born and secular poet Adonis, a stark critic of dictatorship who blends classical and modern styles.

Meanwhile, two Icelandic writers are also making buzz: Sjon, the pen name of poet Sigurjon Birgir Sigurdsson, and Jon Kalman Stefansson. Halldor Laxness was the only Icelandic author to win the Nobel, in 1955.

Each February, the Academy makes a list of all the nominations it has received by those eligible to do so – including former laureates and university professors – before reducing it to five names in May. The members then spend the summer reading those writers, before making their choice in October.

Behind the scenes, intense lobbying campaigns are mounted to influence the Academy, though its members insist they are immune to such efforts. The lobbying can even backfire against the writers.

Kjell Espmark, an Academy member for more than 30 years, told daily Dagens Nyheter that the institution was regularly courted by regimes, especially in countries that have industrialised rapidly. “They want an atomic bomb and a laureate,” he said.